Rob McKenna's $5.76 Billion Education Plan Flunks Basic Math

Rob McKenna's $5.76 Billion Education Plan Flunks Basic Math

McKenna proposes billions in new spending but doesn't say how he'll pay for it



(Seattle, WA) - In his campaign announcement last Wednesday, Rob McKenna proposed $5.76 billion in new spending but left voters in the dark about how he would pay for it. He's even relying on budget projections he repeatedly criticized just two months ago.

"Rob McKenna's $5.76 billion education plan flunks basic math," said Aaron Ostrom, Executive Director of Fuse Washington, the state's largest progressive organization. "He's trying to fool voters with a smoke and mirrors plan that even he himself has labeled 'hard to fathom.'"

McKenna made two specific and ambitious spending proposals:

  • Doubling higher education spending from 8 percent ($2.56 billion) to 16 percent ($5.12 billion) of the state's $32 billion budget, an increase of $2.56 billion.
  • Growing public education's share of the budget from 41 percent ($13.12 billion) to 51 percent ($16.32 billion), an additional increase of $3.2 billion.

In total, Rob McKenna proposed $5.76 billion in new spending in just one hour - $600 million more than the budget deficit the Legislature spent nearly five months working to close.

To pay for it, McKenna has two modest proposals:
  • End contractually obligated 5 percent step increases owed to state employees, saving at most $28 million over the biennium.1
  • Reduce the number of state workers by not replacing the 5 to 7 percent of employees who retire each year, saving at most $747 million over the biennium - even assuming an unrealistic zero rehiring policy for correctional officers and other essential staff.2

Regardless of the merits or feasibility of either proposal, combined they would pay for just 13 percent of McKenna's new spending.

McKenna is also relying on revenue assumptions that don't pass muster, even with himself. When pushed by several reporters after his speech, McKenna admitted he was also relying on the estimated 13 percent growth in government revenue (approximately $4 billion) for the next biennium.3 However, McKenna has repeatedly criticized this same 13 percent growth projection as overly optimistic, stating on his own website in April that "[i]t is hard to fathom how tax revenues will grow that much in two years."4

Even if McKenna is wrong and the state does see this revenue, the budget reality is that it's woefully insufficient to pay for even maintaining existing state services, much less $5.76 billion in new spending. The legislature just finished cutting $5.1 billion from the state budget even after accounting for 13 percent - growth due to inflation, rapidly increasing health care costs, and population growth.

"McKenna's education pitch is just cynical," Ostrom went on to say. "If he actually cared about education or about being honest with voters he wouldn't fund the centerpiece of his campaign with make-believe money."



1Office of Financial Management estimate - June 13, 2011

2Office of Financial Management estimate - June 13, 2011 and http://www.dop.wa.gov/WorkforceDataAndPlanning/WorkforceDataTrends/WAStateEmployeeData/Pages/default.aspx#Headcount

3http://publicola.com/2011/06/08/republican-mckenna-running-on-obamas-education-agenda

4http://www.atg.wa.gov/McKennasMustRead.aspx?id=27774