scoop delivered 289 days ago

What's up Doc?
Why do middle and lower income people often vote with Tim Eyman and often oppose a progressive income tax or other measures that would be in their economic self-interest?

-- Class Conscious

Dear CC:
First, it would probably be more accurate to ask, "Why do white middle and lower income people often vote with Tim Eyman and oppose progressive tax reforms?"  I've never seen any evidence to suggest that people of color have this voting pattern.  In fact, my data geek friends at Win/Win did a quick analysis and didn't find any Eyman initiatives that passed in precincts dominated by non-white voters.

Armed with this observation, I turned to the site www.stuffwhitepeoplelike.com for scoops. Loads of great material there on music, food, and culture, but nothing on voting.

But the subject is widely addressed in a number of thoughtful books (e.g. What's the Matter With Kansas, The Political Brain, The Progressive's Pocketbook of Persuasion) that I started on airplanes and will finish someday.

The answer is that Americans generally vote based on their beliefs, values and emotions, not their rational self-interest.  And conservative politicians have done a much better job of appealing to the beliefs, values and emotions of working class voters over the last forty years than progressives have.  They have also done a masterful job of encouraging average Americans to become increasingly distrustful of government and resentful of taxes.

Which means we have to overcome strongly held beliefs and deeply felt emotions to get many white working class voters to oppose Tim Eyman's anti-tax measures and support progressive tax reforms -- a heavy lift, but not impossible.

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scoop delivered 289 days ago

What's up Doc?
Does former KIRO newscaster and King County Executive candidate Susan Hutchison (R) have a real shot at winning? Is there a chance she could win on name and face recognition alone?

-- Never Forget a Face

Dear NFaF:
My answer is fat chance.  Or slim chance.  (And how is it that they mean the same thing?) Hutchison has four fatal flaws that bury her chances of succeeding Ron Sims as King County Executive: she's a right wing religious Republican¹ with a really thin resume.

A closer look:

Right wing:  She funded far right evangelical favorite Mike Huckabee in the last Presidential election, and W in the previous one.  She's anti choice.   And she has come creationism issues (see below).

Really thin resume:  A former TV newscaster and arts foundation director, Hutchison has no meaningful management experience working with public policy or large scale operations at any level.  But she's applying to run the state's biggest county -- with a budget of $5 billion and a workforce of 14,000 employees that delivers services to 1.8 million people.

Republican:  King County leans heavily Democrat. Republicans lost by 25 and 15 points in the last two King County Executive races. Dino Rossi lost by nearly 30 points in King County last year, and McCain lost by over 40 points.  Although the race is now officially non-partisan, most voters will figure it out.

Religion:  Having a personal relationship with Jesus is fine; Ron Sims is an ordained Baptist minister.  The problem is when you combine it with evangelical and right wing, and throw in things like creationism.  Hutchison served for many years on the board of the Discovery Institute, the right wing think tank responsible for spearheading efforts to add Intelligent Design -- a slick version of creationism - to the science curriculum of the nation's public schools.  King County voters just aren't there.

Fatal flaws aside, as the only woman and the only Republican in the race, she's likely to make it out of the primary.   And her opponent will have to spend quit a bit of money to make sure the electorate is familiar with her flaws.


¹ To be clear, Dr. Scoop is an independent non-partisan who doesn’t believe that belonging to the party of Lincoln is by definition a fatal flaw. But in King County, combined with religious, right wing, and a really thin resume, it’s definitely a problem for her.

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scoop delivered 289 days ago

It's a nail biter.  As of today's email the vote is too close to call and headed for a recount.  King County Councilmember Larry Phillips and Spin City Mayor Barry Bostwick have a slim 12 vote lead over Dino Rossi and 40 Year Old Virgin star Steve Carrell. 

Under Dr. Scoop's home court election rules, a recount is mandatory anytime the candidates are separated by less than .5% of the total vote.

You can check the contestants out here if you missed our last column, but the voting is closed.  All the ballots are under lockdown and quarantined.  There will be no grounds for challenging the integrity of our election.  

Spokespeople for Phillips and Rossi have not commented publicly on the recount.  Legal observers have noted that Phillips played a key role in the discovery of 561 valid but uncounted ballots that turned the third recount in the 2004 Governor's race against Rossi, when he discovered that his own vote hadn't been counted.¹

¹http://www.seattlepi.com/local/203678_governor14.html

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scoop delivered 331 days ago

What's up Doc?

Is it an advantage for politicians when they resemble actors or other celebrities?  I've noticed an uncanny resemblance between King County Councilmember (and King County Executive candidate) Larry Phillips and Spin City Mayor Randall Winston Jr., played by Barry Bostwick.  

--Image Conscious

Dear IC:

Americans do have a long history of electing celebrities to public office, including:

• Gopher from the Love Boat (US Rep. Fred Grandy (R) IO)
• Cooter from the Dukes of Hazzard (US Rep. Ben Jones (D) GA)
• Sonny & Cher's Sonny Bono (US Rep. Sonny Bono (R) CA)
• The Terminator (Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) CA)
• Pro Wrestler Jesse "The Body" Ventura (Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) MN)
• Former Seattle Seahawk and Football Hall of Famer (US Rep. Steve Largent (R) OK)
• Bedtime for Bonzo star, (Pres. Ronald Reagan (R) CA)
• Law & Order DA Arthur Branch (US Senator Fred Thompson (R) TN)
• "Go ahead, make my day" (Mayor Clint Eastwood (R) Carmel, CA)
• Comedian and author Al Franken (US Senator (pending) (D) MN)

But the track record for people who look like celebrities is a lot murkier. (Can anyone name an Elvis impersonator who won an election?) While Larry Phillips has won every race he's ever run, Dino Rossi lost two runs for governor despite a clear resemblance to Steve Carrell, star of The 40 Year Old Virgin and The Office (see below).

It is difficult to deny that Larry Phillips and Mayor Winston were separated at birth, however as you can see for yourself:

King County Councilmember Larry Phillips

Spin City Mayor Randall Winston Jr.

Dino Rossi

40 Year Old Virgin Steve Carrell

Frank Chopp

Dennis Franz

Other politician/celebrity lookalikes that Dr. Scoop has noticed include:

Nick Licata and Slugworth from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.   

King County Councilmember (and County Executive Candidate) Dow Constantine and Reverend Lovejoy from The Simpsons. 

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scoop delivered 331 days ago

Got Another Theory?

What's up Doc?

The ultraconservative Building Industry Association of Washington spends millions of dollars on attack ads every year ($7 million in the last Governor's race alone), and they fund it all with money diverted from a state workers compensation program. Why don't the Democratic supermajorities running the State Legislature do something about this disgraceful problem?

-- Fed Up

Dear Fed Up:

The Senate passed a bill that would clean up this mess earlier this year (SB 6035) but the House killed it last Friday.  

The Building Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) spends boatloads of cash opposing progressive policies and beating the crap out of Democrats at every level, and it's clearly not an appropriate use of tax money.¹

I've researched and analyzed two leading theories on why Democrats don't fix this obvious problem:

Theory #1: The phrase "Democratic supermajorities" is a misnomer. The Democratic caucuses in Olympia are actually shaky coalitions of "business Democrats," "progressive Democrats" (a relatively small minority), "rural Democrats" and "feckless Democrats." They almost never pass anything with significant business opposition, and regularly keep progressives on the defensive.

This is a fairly rational theory, and is clearly supported by following evidence from this year's legislative session: Exhibit A: life and death of SB 6035 (workers compensation reform). Exhibit B: the Legislature's inability to move several important common sense consumer protection bills this year including SB 5895 (the Homeowners Bill of Rights) and SB 5920 (predatory lending reforms). Exhibit C: the success of SB 5840, which rolled back a voter-approved renewable energy initiative.

Theory #2: Business lobbyists have learned a Jedi Mind Control Trick that they share with each other, allowing them to use the dark side of the Force to direct legislators to vote against the interests of their constituents, and even against their own self-interest.  

This is a fairly compelling theory. Although it's difficult to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, it is supported by considerable circumstantial evidence. All of the roll call votes for the bills cited under Theory #1 support this theory as well. And I haven't found a better explanation for the decision by legislative leaders to call in the State Patrol on a relatively innocuous email from the State Labor Council (see my answer to Tazed and Confused, below).  

The sighting of a Sith lord at the capitol (see accompanying photo) is also fairly compelling evidence for this theory. As far as I'm concerned, if the shoe fits, wear it, and so I personally am going with Theory #2 until someone can disprove it.